:Product: 0808RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
08/0931Z from Region 3387 (N18W89). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (09 Aug,
10 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (11 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 603 km/s at 07/2216Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 07/2132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/2157Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 45 pfu at 08/1720Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 720 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Aug, 10 Aug) and
quiet levels on day three (11 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev are
expected to cross threshold on day one (09 Aug) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day two (10 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M    55/55/40
Class X    10/10/01
Proton     99/25/01
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Aug 159
Predicted   09 Aug-11 Aug 155/150/150
90 Day Mean        08 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  014/015-008/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor Storm           20/15/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    30/45/10