:Product: 0810RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
10/0242Z from Region 3398 (S21W85). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug,
13 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 10/0800Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 10/1657Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/1559Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 20 pfu at 09/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1708 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13
Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (11 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     15/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 156
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug 150/150/145
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10