:Product: 0812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
12/0915Z from Region 3395 (N13W44). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug,
15 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 12/0948Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 11/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/0206Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1031 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 148
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug 145/140/130
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15