:Product: 0813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
12/2352Z from Region 3395 (N13W44). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Aug, 15 Aug, 16 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 443 km/s at 12/2157Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/0031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/2316Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1368 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Aug, 15 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on day three (16 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 150
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug 140/130/135
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  005/005-006/005-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/15