:Product: 0814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/0242Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 14/0608Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/0134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/1156Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1252 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 154
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug 155/150/150
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  006/005-009/012-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/15
Minor Storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/30