:Product: 0815RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/0657Z from Region 3395 (N12W87). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 336 km/s at 15/0327Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
15/1717Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/1717Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 899 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (16 Aug, 17 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 158
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug 160/160/155
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 167

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  009/012-014/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/30/20