:Product: 0819RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
19/0648Z from Region 3410 (S30W75). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 19/0741Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 19/1939Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/1904Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 193 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (20 Aug, 21 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (22 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Aug 151
Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug 150/153/153
90 Day Mean        19 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  008/008-006/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10