:Product: 0823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/2304Z from Region 3405 (N09W33). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 495 km/s at 22/2125Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
23/2031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
22/2253Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 362 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Aug, 25 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M    15/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Aug 147
Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug 150/155/155
90 Day Mean        23 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  012/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  007/008-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/10