:Product: 0826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/1006Z from Region 3413 (N12E01). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 25/2226Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 26/0312Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
26/0211Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 285 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Aug 139
Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        26 Aug 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  009/010-010/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/20