:Product: 0827RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/2250Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 27/1638Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
26/2222Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 239 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 Aug, 29 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (30 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Aug 142
Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug 148/150/150
90 Day Mean        27 Aug 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  010/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/10