:Product: 0828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/1650Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 360 km/s at 27/2203Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
28/1813Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/1422Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 332 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 142
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug 144/144/142
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  013/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/15