:Product: 0829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
28/2359Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 409 km/s at 29/1846Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
29/0556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/0909Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 216 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Aug, 31 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (01 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 142
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep 145/145/145
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  006/005-006/005-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20