:Product: 0831RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/2328Z from Region 3413 (N09W48). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Sep,
02 Sep, 03 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 434 km/s at 31/2042Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
31/1658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
31/1708Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (02 Sep) and active to minor storm levels on day three
(03 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M    20/20/15
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Aug 140
Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep 140/150/150
90 Day Mean        31 Aug 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  010/010-011/012-025/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor Storm           05/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/05
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/30/70