:Product: 0901RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/0351Z from Region 3413 (N10W74). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (02 Sep) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (03 Sep,
04 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 01/2024Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 31/2154Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
01/1256Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 25 pfu at 01/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Sep), active to minor
storm levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross
threshold on day one (02 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day two (03 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    25/20/15
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     99/30/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 136
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  013/015-025/035-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor Storm           10/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/20
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/70/30