:Product: 0905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/0812Z from Region 3421 (N14W14). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep,
08 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 05/2057Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 05/1557Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
05/1756Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1869 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 143
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep 144/142/142
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  014/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  014/018-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor Storm           25/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/30/20