:Product: 0906RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/2339Z from Region 3421 (N14W14). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep,
09 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 06/1724Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 06/1251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/1225Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 830 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Sep 147
Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep 150/155/155
90 Day Mean        06 Sep 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  014/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  010/012-008/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/10
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    30/20/15