:Product: 0907RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
07/1909Z from Region 3225. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep,
10 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 06/2329Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 06/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/2302Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 398 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Sep, 10
Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (09 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Sep 161
Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep 155/158/155
90 Day Mean        07 Sep 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  008/010-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/40/25