:Product: 0915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/2126Z from Region 3429 (N10E05). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 14/2103Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/1408Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 200 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 Sep, 18
Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day two (17 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    20/20/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 139
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  013/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  007/008-015/020-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/20
Minor Storm           05/20/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/35