:Product: 0916RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Sep 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
16/0538Z from Region 3429 (N11W22). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep,
19 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 16/0223Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 16/0207Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
16/1913Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 259 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (18 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels
on day three (19 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M    35/25/25
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Sep 140
Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep 145/140/135
90 Day Mean        16 Sep 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  015/020-008/008-026/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/35
Minor Storm           20/10/35
Major-severe storm    05/01/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/35/60