:Product: 0919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
19/2014Z from Region 3435 (N09E42). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep,
22 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 19/0833Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 18/2204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 18/2149Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2068 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (20 Sep, 22 Sep)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     01/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 166
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep 162/160/155
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  021/041
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  037/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  014/016-008/008-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/35
Minor Storm           10/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/50