:Product: 0922RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/1715Z from Region 3443 (N28W40). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 22/2042Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 22/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
22/2004Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2553 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (23 Sep, 24
Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Sep). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Sep,
24 Sep, 25 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 176
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep 178/175/172
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 161

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  013/018-018/022-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor Storm           25/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    65/30/25