:Product: 0924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
24/0328Z from Region 3445 (S14E05). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 24/2000Z. Total IMF
reached 27 nT at 24/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-27 nT at 24/2043Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 24/1500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1024 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (26 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (27
Sep). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (25 Sep)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (26
Sep, 27 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     25/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 174
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 172/168/164
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  011/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  023/028-009/015-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/10
Minor Storm           35/05/05
Major-severe storm    15/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    35/20/15