:Product: 0928RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Sep 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
28/0907Z from Region 3450 (S19E58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep,
01 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 28/0135Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 28/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
28/0236Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1186 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (30 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Sep 148
Predicted   29 Sep-01 Oct 148/148/145
90 Day Mean        28 Sep 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep  012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  005/005-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/20
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/40/25