:Product: 0930RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
30/1635Z from Region 3451 (N14E60). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct,
03 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 30/1031Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 29/2208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/2246Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2212 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Sep 159
Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct 156/154/154
90 Day Mean        30 Sep 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  008/008-012/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/30
Minor Storm           05/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/35/30