:Product: 1001RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
01/0132Z from Region 3452 (N11E47). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct,
04 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 01/2031Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 01/0852Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/0852Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 454 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Oct, 03 Oct) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 161
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct 162/162/162
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  012/015-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor Storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/30/20