:Product: 1002RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 02 2220 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/1246Z from Region 3455 (N25E58). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct,
05 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 02/0204Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 02/0912Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
02/0648Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 283 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 158
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct 158/157/155
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 161

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  011/014-008/008-013/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/35
Minor Storm           15/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/55