:Product: 1005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
05/1913Z from Region 3451 (N17W07). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct,
08 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 05/1350Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 04/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 05/0102Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 368 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (07 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (08 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 156
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct 158/158/155
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 161

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  015/018-020/025-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           25/25/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/65/35