:Product: 1007RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/1806Z from Region 3460 (S11E35). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct,
10 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 06/2313Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 06/2218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/1943Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 324 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Oct, 09 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (10 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Oct 157
Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct 156/158/160
90 Day Mean        07 Oct 161

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct  005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  005/005-005/005-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/35