:Product: 1009RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
09/1911Z from Region 3451 (N17W60). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct,
12 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 09/1632Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 09/1518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/1512Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 276 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Oct,
11 Oct, 12 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    35/35/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Oct 166
Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct 156/156/150
90 Day Mean        09 Oct 160

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct   NA/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  007/008-008/010-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/35