:Product: 1010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
10/1217Z from Region 3452 (N09W80). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct,
13 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 379 km/s at 10/2007Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
10/0929Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
10/1514Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 269 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    35/35/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 164
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 160/160/158
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 160

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct   NA/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  008/010-011/012-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/35
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/50/50