:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/1609Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct,
16 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 13/1710Z. Total IMF reached 24
nT at 13/0829Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
13/1442Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (16 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 149
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 150/150/145
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  008/010-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/15