:Product: 1015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
15/1633Z from Region 3464 (N04W06). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 497 km/s at 14/2103Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 145
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 145/140/135
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  008/005-011/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           01/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/35/50