:Product: 1016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
16/1606Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 397 km/s at 15/2123Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 124 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18
Oct, 19 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 144
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 145/145/150
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  011/012-010/012-013/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor Storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/45/50