:Product: 1020RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
20/0500Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 378 km/s at 20/1208Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
20/1743Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
20/1847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 183 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Oct 126
Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct 124/124/122
90 Day Mean        20 Oct 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct  009/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  010/012-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/35/25