:Product: 1021RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/0030Z from Region 3467 (N14W26). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Oct,
23 Oct, 24 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 21/0338Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 21/0429Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 21/0555Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 104 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 123
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct 122/120/118
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  010/012-010/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/20