:Product: 1023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/1958Z from Region 3468 (S09W25). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (24 Oct) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 398 km/s at 23/1747Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
22/2330Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
23/1324Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Oct, 25 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 122
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 125/130/135
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  009/010-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/15