:Product: 1025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
25/0045Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 25/0042Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
25/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1502Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 291 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (26 Oct, 28 Oct) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (27 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Oct 126
Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        25 Oct 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  005/005-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/25/10