:Product: 1027RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/2324Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 26/2100Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 27/0430Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 27/0406Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 307 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Oct), quiet to active
levels on day two (29 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (30 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 128
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct 128/130/130
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  018/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  009/008-009/012-016/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/40
Minor Storm           05/10/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/40/65