:Product: 1028RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/0623Z from Region 3473 (N16E44). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 28/1833Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 28/0653Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
28/1508Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 287 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Oct) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 128
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct 129/133/137
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  011/015-016/025-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/35
Minor Storm           10/30/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/65/55