:Product: 1030RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/0349Z from Region 3474 (S18W02). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov,
02 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 30/0249Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 29/2142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/1208Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2102 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Oct, 01 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (02 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 140
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  021/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  010/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15