:Product: 1031RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
31/0023Z from Region 3473 (N16E09). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov,
03 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 31/1256Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 31/0851Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
31/0906Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1705 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 147
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 148/148/150
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/15