:Product: 1102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/1222Z from Region 3474 (S18W42). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov,
05 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 01/2123Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2375 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (04 Nov, 05 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 158
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov 160/162/158
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  006/005-007/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/25
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/30