:Product: 1103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
03/0132Z from Region 3480 (S11E64). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Nov, 05 Nov,
06 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 506 km/s at 03/0844Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2847 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 156
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 158/156/156
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  007/008-009/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20