:Product: 1104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
03/2238Z from Region 3480 (S11E64). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov,
07 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 04/1024Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 04/1739Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 04/1721Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 9842 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Nov), unsettled
to major storm levels on day two (06 Nov) and quiet to active levels on
day three (07 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 155
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 155/155/150
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  009/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  018/025-020/030-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           25/35/15
Major-severe storm    10/20/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/40/30