:Product: 1106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
05/2134Z from Region 3480 (S09E40). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 06/1549Z. Total IMF
reached 24 nT at 05/2233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 06/0521Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 130 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (07 Nov), unsettled to
active levels on day two (08 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (09 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 146
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  030/075
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  030/043
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  022/032-014/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/30/20