:Product: 1107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
07/1613Z from Region 3479 (N23W58). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 664 km/s at 07/2034Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 07/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 06/2225Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1523 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (08 Nov), quiet to active
levels on day two (09 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(10 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 145
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 145/140/142
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  027/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  014/018-011/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/20