:Product: 1108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
08/0848Z from Region 3483 (N09W09). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 780 km/s at 08/1943Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 07/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
08/0300Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1232 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (10 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (11 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 146
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 145/145/145
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  013/014-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20