:Product: 1109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/1118Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 09/1349Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 08/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1905Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2555 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (11 Nov) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (12 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 139
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 140/140/145
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 148

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  015/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  009/010-019/030-019/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor Storm           05/35/35
Major-severe storm    01/20/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/55/30