:Product: 1111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/1729Z from Region 3477 (S15W67). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov,
14 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 591 km/s at 10/2116Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4372 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (14 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 142
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov 145/140/130
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 148

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  016/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  025/038-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor Storm           35/15/05
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/35/20