:Product: 1112RSGA.txt :Issued: 2023 Nov 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2023 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 12/0441Z from Region 3484 (S15W60). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (13 Nov, 14 Nov) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (15 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 12/0737Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/0717Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3687 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov). III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov Class M 45/45/20 Class X 05/05/01 Proton 05/05/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Nov 137 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 148 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 017/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 012/015-008/008-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/15 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 35/20/20